U.S. oil surged more than 4% as reports suggested Iran could launch a "major" attack on Israel as early as this week

On Monday, U.S. time, WTI September crude oil futures closed up $3.22, or 4.19%, at $80.06 per barrel, approaching the closing price of $81.30 on July 18. WTI oil prices rose through the 50-day and 100-day moving averages on the basis of recovering the 200-day moving average on August 9 last Friday, and rebounded 9.76% in the past five trading days.

Brent October crude oil futures closed up $2.64, or more than 3.31%, at $82.30 per barrel, approaching the closing price of $83.93 on July 18, and rebounded 7.86% from the closing price on August 5.

Oil prices recorded the largest single-day increase since October last year. Dan Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, said algorithmic trend traders still have "ammunition" left in Brent crude, suggesting that Iran's response could trigger further buying by such investors.

Analysts said that the rise in oil prices driven by the situation in the Middle East may mean that fund managers' positions will change. Data released last Friday showed that due to concerns about the macroeconomic downturn, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that hedge funds and algorithmic traders cut their net long positions in ICE Brent crude oil to the lowest level since the data was first released in 2011. U.S. CFTC data showed that WTI crude oil bullish sentiment hit a two-month low.

Risk aversion drove precious metals up sharply on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 1% to $2,498.4 per ounce during the session. Spot gold rose 1% during the day to $2,455.61 per ounce. Spot silver (28.01, 0.00, 0.00%) rose 1.6% to $27.90 per ounce.

U.S. stocks fell sharply during the day and fluctuated during the day.

White House officials said Iran could launch a "major" attack on Israel as early as this week. According to CCTV News, CCTV reporters learned that on August 12, local time, John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said that Iran could launch a "major" attack on Israel as early as this week. John Kirby said that US President Biden had called the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom that day to discuss the growing tensions.

The Israeli army said it was on high alert. According to CCTV International News, on the evening of August 12, local time, Israeli military spokesman Hagari issued a statement saying that the Israeli army "is closely following developments in the region, especially the movements of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon," and the Israeli army is currently "prepared for the highest level of offense and defense to respond to attacks." Hagari said, "The Israeli Air Force has stepped up patrols over Lebanon to detect and intercept threatening targets." He also said that as of now, the public safety instructions of the Israeli rear command have not changed.

The Israeli Chief of Staff approved combat plans on different fronts and required the army to remain in a state of combat readiness. According to CCTV News, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on August 12 local time, saying that on that day, the Israeli Chief of Staff Halevy assessed the situation on different fronts and approved the corresponding combat plan. Halevy also said that the army must continue to maintain a high state of combat readiness and strive to be prepared for offense and defense. The Deputy Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, the Director of the Intelligence and Operations Bureau, the Commander of the Northern Command, the Commander of the Air Force, the Commander of the Homeland Defense Command and other senior military officers attended the meeting that day.

The United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy issued a joint statement calling for the resumption of Gaza ceasefire negotiations. According to CCTV News, on August 12 local time, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy issued a joint statement on the Middle East issue. According to a statement issued by the White House, the leaders of the five countries discussed the situation in the Middle East. In order to fully support efforts to ease the conflict in Gaza, reach a ceasefire and release detained persons, the five governments expressed their agreement to restart ceasefire negotiations later this week and called on all parties to fulfill their responsibilities and reach a ceasefire agreement as soon as possible.

Earlier, Guterres urged both sides of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to rejoin the negotiations and reach a ceasefire agreement. According to CCTV News, on August 12, local time, the Office of the Spokesperson of the UN Secretary-General issued a statement saying that Israel once again launched a devastating attack on a school in Gaza, killing a large number of people. Guterres condemned the continued loss of life in the Gaza Strip, including women and children. The statement said that Guterres was frustrated that the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 2735 (2024) had not yet been implemented, and urged the conflicting parties to rejoin the negotiations and reach an agreement on a ceasefire and the release of detained persons. In addition, Guterres once again urgently called for an immediate ceasefire and the unconditional release of all detained persons. He also reiterated the need to ensure the protection of civilians and to ensure the unimpeded and safe entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza.