Tuesday (October 22) Financial Breakfast, including important fundamental news, precious metals/crude oil/foreign exchange/commodities/stock market/bond market, international news, domestic news, institutional views, today's important financial data and financial events. Dallas Fed President Logan, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Kansas Fed President Schmid all support a gradual rate cut. As the war in the Middle East continues to escalate, oil prices have rebounded. However, there are reports that Israel has asked the White House to end the Lebanon War.
Overview of major global markets
1. Precious metals
Spot gold hit a record high on Monday, but due to the rise in the US dollar and US bond yields, it subsequently gave up all the gains of the day and finally closed down 0.07% at $2,719.82/ounce. Spot silver closed up 0.17% at $33.77/ounce.
Citigroup announced that they have raised their gold price forecast for the period of 0 to 3 months to $2,800 per ounce, an increase from the previous forecast of $2,700 per ounce. In addition, Citigroup raised its price forecast for silver in the next 6 to 12 months to $40 per ounce, an increase from the previous forecast of $38 per ounce.
2. Crude oil
Crude oil rebounded slightly on Monday as the war in the Middle East continued to escalate. WTI crude oil finally closed up 1.32% at $69.70 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.13% at $73.69 per barrel.
Scott Shelton, energy analyst at TP ICAP, pointed out in his report that the situation in the Middle East is not yet clear, which means that oil prices may still need to maintain a certain risk premium.
3. Foreign exchange
The US dollar index closed up 0.50% at 103.98 on Monday. The market cut its bets on a sharp rate cut as officials such as Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari supported a gradual rate cut. According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting 25 basis points by November is 86.8%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 13.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 0%.
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, pointed out in his report that the robustness of the US economy compared with other economies provides support for the US dollar. Barclays said that if Republican candidate Trump wins the presidency and the Republican Party dominates Congress, this will have the most positive impact on the US dollar. On the contrary, if Democratic candidate Harris is elected president and Congress is divided, the US dollar may be generally under pressure.
The pound closed down 0.49% against the US dollar at 1.2983 on Monday. ING said that the risk of sterling against the US dollar is still tilted to the downside and may fall to 1.28 unless there is an unexpected decline in major US data. Monex Europe analysts reported that speeches by Bank of England officials, especially Governor Bailey, will be a key factor in the trend of the pound this week.
The euro continued to weaken against the US dollar on Monday, closing down 0.48% at 1.0814. Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, pointed out in his report that the PMI data of the eurozone manufacturing and service industries have the potential to further drag down the euro exchange rate.
4. Commodities
LME copper closed down 0.66% at $9,562/ton on Monday; LME aluminum closed down 0.69% at $2,595/ton; LME zinc closed down 0.91% at $3,061.50/ton.
5. Stock market
On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.20%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.09%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.69%. The semiconductor sector rose sharply, and the military informationization concept fluctuated and strengthened.
On Monday, major European stock markets generally showed a downward trend. Germany's DAX30 index closed down 201.06 points, a drop of 1.02%, and finally settled at 19,456.95 points. The UK's FTSE 100 index was also not spared, falling 40.19 points, a drop of 0.48%, closing at 8,318.06 points. France's CAC40 index also fell, down 76.82 points, or 1.01%, to 7536.23 points. In addition, the Euro Stoxx 50 index also fell 45.52 points, or 0.91%, to close at 4940.75 points. Spain's IBEX35 index and Italy's FTSE MIB index also fell 79.40 points and 235.26 points, or 0.67% and 0.67%, respectively, to close at 11845.80 points and 34969.00 points.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 344.31 points, or 0.80%, at 42931.60 points on Monday. At the same time, the S&P 500 also fell slightly, falling 10.69 points, or 0.18%, to close at 5853.98 points. On the contrary, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose during the day's trading, up 50.45 points, or 0.27%, to close at 18,540.01 points.
6. Bond market
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2060% on Monday; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.0420%.
International News
①Saudi Arabia will welcome the first listed Hong Kong stock ETF
②Kashkari of the US Federal Reserve Bank said that if there are signs of rapid weakness in the labor market, it may accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts
③US media reports: Egypt proposed a "small-scale" hostage exchange and ceasefire agreement for Gaza
④Source: After Sinwar was killed, the committee in Doha will lead Hamas
⑤Israel asked the White House to end the Lebanon War
Domestic News
①The number of elderly care service facilities in China has doubled
②Shenzhen residential decoration subsidy policy update
③Guangdong Province recently issued an action plan to accelerate the innovation and development of the optical chip industry
④The central government and the State Council deepen the reform goals of industrial workers
Institutional Views Summary
①Kenneth Broux of Societe Generale: Tactically, the euro-dollar correction is now basically completed
②CICC's view: The market is in a "see-saw" state in the second stage of the bull market, and investors should treat it with the mentality of the bull market volatility period
③Torsten Slok, economist at Apollo Asset Management: The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in November is reduced
简体中文
ภาษาไทย
繁體中文
Indonesia
2024-10-22
206
