Usdcnh: back test continue to buy

Fundamental analysis:

If the Federal Reserve finally cuts interest rates in 2023, it may mean the early end of quantitative tightening. At that time, the Ministry of finance will have room to reduce coupon issuance and improve the supply-demand imbalance of treasury bonds of various maturities. The early end of quantitative tightening will be welcomed by the market, because it allows the Treasury to take the necessary measures to reduce the coupon supply, which indicates that the Fed will return to the secondary market purchase in the long run. Bank of America economists predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September 2023 to cope with a mild economic recession.

USD / RMB usdcnh daily chart:

Technical analysis:

According to the daily chart, the price fell in a narrow range and rose again after consolidation. MACD runs on the 0 axis and the volume can continue to shrink slightly. RSI fell slowly. It is expected that the short-term exchange rate will rise further after the fall and consolidation.

Long short turning point: 6.6416

Resistance level: 6.7600 6.8870

Support position: 6.5385 6.4260

Trading strategy: above 6.6416, bullish, with target prices of 6.7600 and 6.8870

Alternative strategy: below 6.6416, bearish, with target prices of 6.5385 and 6.4260