简体中文
ภาษาไทย
繁體中文
Indonesia
Gold trading reminder: The US dollar and US Treasury yields rose, gold prices hit a record high and then fell back, pay attention to the initial jobless claims data
2024-09-26
372
In the early Asian session on Thursday (September 26), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $2,656.9 per ounce. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical turmoil once helped gold prices hit a record high of around $2,670 on Wednesday, gold prices then fluctuated and fell back as the decline in new home sales in the United States in August was smaller than expected, and Fed officials said inflation would not fall below 2%. The US dollar and US Treasury yields rose sharply, making gold bulls cautious.
David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said: "I think we are still in the wave of central bank easing policies, and there may be further easing policies in the future. I think expectations that the US dollar will weaken also support gold prices."
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors believe that the Fed has about a 59% chance of another 50 basis point rate cut in November.
Traders are waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech and US inflation data later this week for further policy clues.
"If we continue to see a weakening labor market, if we see Fed policymakers all reiterate a 50 basis point rate cut, then we could see $2,700 an ounce in the next day or two," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.
Gold prices have risen more than 29% so far in 2024, with the rally attributed to central bank easing and geopolitical issues.
However, the daily K-line recorded a cross star on Wednesday, which is a top signal. As the dollar stabilizes and rebounds, it is necessary to beware of the risk of a short-term correction in gold prices.
This trading day will release the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in August in the United States, and the final value of GDP in the second quarter of the United States. Investors need to pay close attention. In addition, this trading day will usher in speeches by several Fed officials, and investors also need to pay attention to them. In addition, they need to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.
Israel says it may launch a ground operation against Lebanon, and all parties are working to avoid a full-scale war
Israeli military leaders told the army on Wednesday that Israel's fierce air strikes on Lebanon are preparing for the Israeli army to launch a ground operation against Hezbollah militants. Meanwhile, a series of diplomatic efforts are underway to try to prevent a full-scale war.
According to an Israeli military statement, Israeli General Herzi Halevi told troops on the Lebanese border: "You hear the sound of warplanes overhead; we have been conducting strikes all day... This is both to prepare for your possible entry and to continue to strike Hezbollah." In response, a Pentagon spokesman said that an Israeli ground invasion did not seem imminent.
According to a compilation of Lebanese Ministry of Health statements, Israel expanded its air strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday, killing at least 72 people.
Israel shot down a missile that Hezbollah said was aimed at the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency near Tel Aviv, Israel's largest city. Israeli officials said a heavy missile flew toward civilian areas in Tel Aviv, not the Mossad headquarters, before being shot down.
As the death toll in Lebanon continues to rise and thousands of people flee their homes, world leaders have expressed concern about the rapid escalation of the conflict.
UN Secretary-General Guterres pointed out that a full-scale war must be avoided at all costs and Lebanon cannot become another Gaza.
The United States and France are trying to reach a temporary cessation of hostilities in the hope of opening broader talks that would include efforts to achieve a long-sought ceasefire in Gaza, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides said on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington and its allies are working tirelessly to avoid an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he would send his foreign minister to Lebanon this week as part of efforts to prevent a war.
Three Israeli sources said the Franco-American efforts have yet to make significant progress.
Israel's permanent representative to the United Nations, Danny Danon, told reporters in New York that Israel welcomes a ceasefire and prefers a diplomatic solution to Lebanon, but will use all the means at its disposal if diplomatic efforts fail.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said at the United Nations that Iran supports Hezbollah and will not sit idly by in the face of an all-out war in Lebanon. He also said the region is on the brink of a total disaster.
U.S. new home sales fell less than expected in August, median home prices fell
Sales of newly built single-family homes in the United States fell less than expected in August, and sales may regain momentum in the coming months as lower mortgage rates and home prices stimulate demand.
The report released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed that new home sales in the previous three months were higher than initially expected. The Federal Reserve lowered its interest rate target range by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00% last week, lowering borrowing costs for the first time since 2020. Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level in more than a year and a half, while the market for used homes remains in short supply.
"We expect that lower mortgage rates, pent-up demand, and a relatively scarce supply of existing homes despite recent increases will support modest growth in new home sales in 2024 and 2025," said Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
New home sales fell 4.7% from the previous month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,000 units, the U.S. Census Bureau said. July sales were revised up to 751,000 from 739,000. Sales for May and June were also revised up.
Economists had forecast new home sales, which account for 15.6% of U.S. home sales, would fall to 700,000. New home sales are counted when contracts are signed, though monthly data can fluctuate. New home sales increased 9.8% in August from a year earlier.
The median new home price fell 4.6% in August from a year earlier to $420,600. Most of the new homes sold in the month were priced between $300,000 and $499,900.
The new home market has benefited from a lack of existing homes for sale, encouraging builders to speed up new home construction.
New home inventory increased to 467,000 in August from 459,000 in July, returning to levels last seen in early 2008. About 55.7% of the inventory is homes under construction. Completed homes account for 22.5% of inventory, while the remaining 21.8% are homes that have not yet been started.
At August's sales pace, it would take 7.8 months to sell out the supply of new homes on the market, compared with 7.3 months in July.
Fed Governor Kugler says inflation not expected to fall below target
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday that she does not expect inflation to fall below the Fed's 2% target, noting that while some inflation measures excluding housing are below target, the target is for overall inflation, which is approaching but still above 2%.
"Inflation below target is not the base case," Kugler said in a speech at Harvard Kennedy School. She also said that Fed policymakers generally expect further rate cuts this year and next, and the exact timing of the cuts will depend on the data.
The dollar index rebounded from a 14-month low
The dollar fell sharply on Tuesday after data showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index fell the most in three years in September due to growing concerns about the labor market. But the dollar index rebounded sharply after falling to a nearly 14-month low on Wednesday, recovering all of Tuesday's losses and closing at 100.92, up about 0.257%. The key support level and the low of more than a year showed a "engulfing" bullish bottom signal. There is a chance for the dollar to rebound in the future, which may be unfavorable to gold prices.
However, Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said: "The narrowing labor market gap is a very bad omen for the US economy. The gap reflects the supply and demand of the job market to some extent. The market interprets this as a sign that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates for the second time at the November meeting."
The Fed launched a rate cut cycle last week, with an ultra-large 50 basis points in its first move. Fed Chairman Powell said the move was intended to show that policymakers are committed to maintaining low unemployment amid easing inflation.
The main focus of the US economy this week will be the August personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday.
U.S. Treasury yields rise as investors are optimistic about a soft landing for the economy
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board on Wednesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising five of the past seven trading days, as investors continue to believe that the Federal Reserve will be able to achieve a soft landing for the world's largest economy in its latest rate-cutting cycle.
The U.S. two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy moves, did not fall as much as expected after the 50 basis point rate cut last week. Since the rate cut, the two-year Treasury yield has fallen about 5 basis points in seven days, which is not much considering the magnitude of the Fed's rate cut.
The U.S. two-year Treasury yield rose 3.7 basis points to 3.557% at the end of Wednesday's trading, having hit 3.506% overnight, the lowest since September 2022.
The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.9 basis points higher at 3.784% at the end of Wednesday's trading. The yield has risen about 3 basis points since the rate cut on September 18.
"We're seeing a broad-based move higher in yields, which is a little counterintuitive early in a Fed rate-cutting cycle," said Chip Hughey, managing director of fixed income at Truist Advisory Services. "That's because if the Fed is expected to move aggressively toward neutral and out of ... restrictive territory, then the odds of a soft landing may have risen."
Data released Wednesday showing a drop in U.S. new home sales in August had little impact on the Treasury market. But expectations that future housing demand could increase as mortgage rates fall could boost the soft landing argument. U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.13% last week, the lowest in about two years.
Some say the recent move higher in yields is long overdue.
"Yields were down pretty sharply heading into the meeting," said Joanne Bianco, investment strategist and client portfolio manager at BondBloxx. "I'm not surprised that yields have moved back a bit."
Bianco also believes in the prospect of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, which she said remains in good shape. "We think the U.S. economy is still in that state. We don't expect a hard landing."
Truist's Hughey said: "We do think that the steepening will continue, and the front end of the curve will continue to have a more pronounced decline than the back end. If the Fed is going to move faster than previously expected, then the road to cooling inflation may be a little bumpy."
The above information is provided by special analysts and is for reference only. CM Trade does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness and completeness of the information content, so you should not place too much reliance on the information provided. CM Trade is not a company that provides financial advice, and only provides services of the nature of execution of orders. Readers are advised to seek relevant investment advice on their own. Please see our full disclaimer.
CM Trade
As a world leading financial trading platform, CMtrade Provides comprehensive one-stop trading services and opportunities for traders.
[Products]
The platform provides over 32 kinds of popular financial products such as forex, precious metals, crude oil, indices, cryptocurrencies and more.
[System]
2 top trading systems CM Trade MT4 / CM Trade APP, powerful and easy to operate
[Service]
Comprehensive market news, professional market analysis, 7*24 hours online customer service
[Advantage]
Low cost, high leverage, flexible one-stop all day two-way trading.
[Authority]
Licensed and strictly regulated by authorities. Traders deposits are independently kept by the bank. Fast deposit and withdrawal. Fair, efficient and transparent trading environment.
Follow us to learn more
Free AccessDaily Trading Strategy
Download Now
CM Trade Mobile Application
Economics Calendar
MoreYou May Also Like
