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Crude oil technical analysis: Oil prices rose above $76, aligning with the 200-day moving average

2024-10-08

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In New York, WTI crude oil surged intraday to $76.65/barrel, up 3.05%.

Geopolitical tensions remain the focus, and oil prices have risen, with oil prices rising above 76.00, in line with the 200-day moving average.

Oil prices jumped again at the beginning of this week after rising about 9% last week, the biggest weekly increase in more than a year, as concerns about the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East overshadowed concerns about weak demand.

Oil prices rose the most since March 2023 on expectations that Israel might strike Iran's oil infrastructure in response to Iran's October 1 missile attack. A year since the war began, there are few signs that it will end; on the contrary, concerns about rising oil prices are growing, which may directly affect supply.

However, it is worth noting that this is the risk premium that drives oil prices higher; the actual impact on supply is still small. In addition, OPEC+'s 7 million barrels per day of spare capacity can provide a buffer. The group has spare capacity due to cuts in oil production in recent years to support oil prices.

At last week's OPEC+ meeting, the group agreed to keep production unchanged, including plans to increase production in December.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices extended the rebound from 67.50 (mid-September low), breaking above the downtrend line and 76.00. Supported by RSI above 50, buyers will look to extend gains towards the 200 SMA at 77.40. Above this, buyers may gain momentum towards the mid-August high of 80.40.

On the downside, support is seen at 73.50, which is the downtrend line support, and 72.60, which is the 50 SMA support.

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Crude oil technical analysis: Oil prices rose above $76, aligning with the 200-day moving average

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